In armed conflict, ceasefire agreements suspend hostilities and typically call for the withdrawal of troops and establishment of buffer zones or demilitarized areas. Such agreements are essential to addressing the root causes of conflict and can provide pathways towards a lasting peace. However, they are also often subject to challenges, including logistical difficulties and the emergence of spoilers who seek to undermine or even destroy them. This article looks at the key issues that can lead to success or failure of ceasefire agreements and offers some suggestions for how these problems can be overcome.
As the first stage of the Gaza ceasefire gets underway, there are signs that it may be able to move forward and become more permanent. This is partly because of the intense pressure that was applied by Steven Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy. This pressure, combined with the clear sense of urgency that Netanyahu felt during his meeting with Witkoff, led to him signing the framework for a more comprehensive deal.
However, there are also some reasons to be skeptical that the current deal can work. For one, Israel is still unsure that it will be able to get the guarantee it wants from the US that the second and third phases of the ceasefire will lead to full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
Furthermore, the public on both sides of this dispute are deeply divided over the direction of the ceasefire and the wider conflict as a whole. This could mean that a ceasefire that is initially successful can quickly deteriorate as the disagreements over its scope and purpose continue to play out in public.