Since the war began in July, the number of Palestinians killed has risen to more than 1,800. The vast majority were civilians, including many children. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced from their homes and are living in shelters or returning to what remains of their neighbourhoods, having been denied the basic right to return.
The first stage of the ceasefire has now begun, and should see a significant increase in humanitarian access, with families being allowed to return to their homes and aid agencies working to rebuild destroyed infrastructure. But there is much more to be done if this agreement is to endure.
A key to whether or not the deal works will be Israel’s and Hamas’ willingness to decommit themselves. The latter has been under intense pressure from its Arab allies, and would risk losing their support if it refused to decommit in Gaza.
Another key will be the extent to which Israel and Hezbollah agree to disarm their respective militias in Lebanon. But it is hard to know how far Hezbollah is willing to go, as the organisation’s leaders have emphasized its military role in defending the Lebanese state against Israeli attacks and claimed that the militia cannot be forced to disarm.
Finally, US President Donald Trump’s unusually high personal investment in the success of this agreement could be an important incentive for all parties to comply with its terms. He has made it clear that he will not let this conflict drag on until he is in office, and so he has the leverage to press Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition partners to back off from their demands for a more robust war against Hamas.